The below chart shows the total number of cereals launched per year. As shown, we are entering a golden age of cereal variety!

In fact, the majority of all cereals have been launched in the past ~10 years:

Breaking these products down by brand shows us that the variety may not be as strong as initially presented, with 5 manufacturers accounting for >95% of the market. One can infer from this that there is a lot of re-naming/packaging/branding going on here by this handful of companies.

Turning now to how these cereals perform on the market, the most frequent tenure bin of cereals that have both launched and came off of market is <5 years.

Curious to see if this sunset/cereal discontinuation rate varied amongst the major manufacturers, I found that it is quite similar, with 25-33% of all cereals launched being discontinued by each of the top 4 manufacturers. It’s worth recognizing that General Mills is a bit more committed to their launches, pulling the plug on its cereal varieties ~6% less than the group mean.

The next logical question to ask when coming across all if this information is ‘why are manufacturers producing a continuously increase amount of cereal variety’?

Most speculate that this is due to manufacturers trying to combat the general stagnation in the breakfast cereal market. I propose there are two major strategies for combatting flat/declining sales:

(1) Bring the millennials back by re-launching their old favorites:

NY times posted a popular article earlier this year discussing the declining interest, particularly amongst millennials, in breakfast cereal; the article explained that in recent surveys, over 40% of millennials opted out of breakfast cereal because of the hassle (time + mess to clean up after). Manufacturers, as a result, have been trying to lure millennials back in with nostalgic favorites, such as French Toast Crunch.

(2) Join the health/psuedo-health wave by offering healthier varieties:

As qz.com writes, yogurt sales have skyrocketed in the past ~10 years whereas breakfast cereal sales have remained flat. Many speculate this is due to yogurt being a natural convenient and healthy breakfast choice. Since cereal again cannot really change its convenience level (unless you’re on team dry cereal), it seems they may be taking the health angle, rebranding and renaming many existing cereals with buzzwords such as gluten-free, organic, all-natural, etc.

 

For those interested in knowing just how old their favorite cereals are, or what cereals had the shortest time on market (shoutout to Millenios) I’ve created a repository of cereals and their associated tenure (age since inception):

Name	Brand	Launch year	End year	Tenure (years)
Grape-Nuts	Post	1897	Currently Available	119
Corn Flakes	Kellogg’s	1907	Currently Available	109
All-Bran	Kellogg’s	1916	Currently Available	100
Rice Krispies	Kellogg’s	1929	Currently Available	87
CoCo Wheats	Little Crow Foods	1930	Currently Available	86
Wheat Chex	General Mills	1937	Currently Available	79
Kix	General Mills	1937	Currently Available	79
Cheerios	General Mills	1941	Currently Available	75
Raisin Bran	Kellogg’s	1944	Currently Available	72
Golden Crisp	Post	1949	Currently Available	67
Sugar Crisp	Post	1949	Currently Available	67
Rice Chex	General Mills	1950	Currently Available	66
Corn Pops	Kellogg’s	1951	Currently Available	65
Frosted Flakes	Kellogg’s	1952	Currently Available	64
Honey Smacks	Kellogg’s	1953	Currently Available	63
Sugar Smacks	Kellogg’s	1953	Currently Available	63
Special K	Kellogg’s	1955	Currently Available	61
Krumbles-Kellogg’s	Kellogg’s	1913	1973	60
Cocoa Krispies	Kellogg’s	1958	Currently Available	58
Cocoa Puffs	General Mills	1958	Currently Available	58
Alpha-Bits	Post	1958	Currently Available	58
Corn Chex	General Mills	1958	Currently Available	58
Life	Quaker	1960	Currently Available	56
Total	General Mills	1961	Currently Available	55
Cap’n Crunch	Quaker	1963	Currently Available	53
Lucky Charms	General Mills	1964	Currently Available	52
Froot Loops	Kellogg’s	1964	Currently Available	52
Apple Jacks	Kellogg’s	1965	Currently Available	51
Honeycomb	Post	1965	Currently Available	51
Cap’n Crunch Crunch Berries	Quaker	1967	Currently Available	49
Product 19	Kellogg’s	1967	Currently Available	49
Peanut Butter Crunch	Quaker	1969	Currently Available	47
Pebbles Cereal	Post	1969	Currently Available	47
Fruity Pebbles	Post	1969	Currently Available	47
Fruity Pebbles	Post	1969	Currently Available	47
Kaboom!	General Mills	1969	Currently Available	47
Golden Grahams	General Mills	1970	Currently Available	46
Cocoa Pebbles	N/A	1970	Currently Available	46
Cocoa Pebbles	Post	1970	Currently Available	46
King Vitaman	Quaker	1970	Currently Available	46
Monster Cereals	General Mills	1971	Currently Available	45
Count Chocula	General Mills	1971	Currently Available	45
Franken Berry	General Mills	1971	Currently Available	45
Count Chocula	General Mills	1971	Currently Available	45
Franken Berry	General Mills	1971	Currently Available	45
Count Chocula	General Mills	1971	Currently Available	45
Franken Berry	General Mills	1971	Currently Available	45
Boo-Berry Cereal	General Mills	1973	Currently Available	43
Boo Berry	General Mills	1973	Currently Available	43
Boo Berry	General Mills	1973	Currently Available	43
Cookie Crisp	General Mills	1977	Currently Available	39
Cinnamon Life	Quaker	1978	Currently Available	38
Mini-Wheats	Kellogg’s	1978	Currently Available	38
Honey Nut Cheerios	General Mills	1979	Currently Available	37
Cinnamon Nut Cheerios	General Mills	1980	Currently Available	36
Mueslix	Kellogg’s	1980	Currently Available	36
Honey Nut Corn Flakes	Kellogg’s	1981	Currently Available	35
Crispix	Kellogg’s	1983	Currently Available	33
Cinnamon Toast Crunch	General Mills	1984	Currently Available	32
Apple Cinnamon Cheerios	General Mills	1988	Currently Available	28
Christmas Crunch	Quaker	1988	Currently Available	28
Honey Bunches of Oats	Post	1989	Currently Available	27
Honey Bunches of Oats with Almonds	Post	1990	Currently Available	26
Multi-Bran Chex	General Mills	1990	Currently Available	26
MultiGrain Cheerios	General Mills	1991	Currently Available	25
Yummy Mummy	General Mills	1988	2013	25
Berry Berry Kix	General Mills	1992	Currently Available	24
Rice Krispies Treats Cereal	Kellogg’s	1993	Currently Available	23
Rice Krispies Treats Cereal	Kellogg’s	1993	Currently Available	23
Reese’s Puffs	General Mills	1994	Currently Available	22
French Toast Crunch	General Mills	1995	Currently Available	21
Frosted Cheerios	General Mills	1995	Currently Available	21
Concentrate	Kellogg’s	1959	1980	21
Krispy Kritters 1960s	General Mills	1960	1980	20
Honey Rice Krispies	Kellogg’s	1996	Currently Available	20
Jets	General Mills	1950	1970	20
Cranberry Almond Crunch	Post	1997	Currently Available	19
Oops! All Berries	Quaker	1997	Currently Available	19
Rice Krinkles	Post	1951	1970	19
Chex	Ralston	1997	Currently Available	19
Oat Crisp	Quaker	1998	Currently Available	18
Raisin Bran Crunch	Kellogg’s	1999	Currently Available	17
Crispy Critters	Post	1963	1980	17
Honey Nut Chex	General Mills	1999	Currently Available	17
Nestlé NesQuik	General Mills/Nestlé	1999	Currently Available	17
Special K Red Berries	N/A	2001	Currently Available	15
Freakies	Ralston	1972	1987	15
Honey Bunches of Oats with Strawberries	Post	2002	Currently Available	14
Strawberry Rice Krispies	Kellogg’s	1983	1997	14
Berry Burst Cheerios	General Mills	2003	Currently Available	13
Berry Burst Cheerios	General Mills	2003	Currently Available	13
Smorz	Kellogg’s	2003	Currently Available	13
Peanut Butter Toast Crunch	General Mills	2004	Currently Available	12
Less Sugar Frosted Flakes	Kellogg’s	2004	Currently Available	12
Yogurt Burst Cheerios	General Mills	2004	Currently Available	12
Cinnamon Cheerios	General Mills	2004	Currently Available	12
Marshmallow Rice Krispies	Kellogg’s	1982	1993	11
Chocolate Lucky Charms	General Mills	2005	Currently Available	11
Tony’s Turboz	Kellogg’s	2005	Currently Available	11
S’mores Grahams or S’mores Crunch	General Mills	1980	1990	10
Apple Cinnamon Rice Krispies	Kellogg’s	1980	1990	10
Fruity Cheerios	General Mills	2006	Currently Available	10
Comet Balls	Spix/Sulava & Company	2006	Currently Available	10
Oatibix	Weetabix Limited	2006	Currently Available	10
Eggo	Kellogg’s	2006	Currently Available	10
Honey Bunches of Oats with Vanilla Clusters	Post	2007	Currently Available	9
Choco Crunch (Re-introduced Version)	Quaker	2007	Currently Available	9
Oat Cluster Cheerios Crunch	General Mills	2007	Currently Available	9
Chocolate Chex	General Mills	2007	Currently Available	9
Fruit Brute	General Mills	1974	1983	9
Oreo O’s	N/A	1998	2007	9
Honey Bunches of Oats with Chocolate Clusters	Post	2008	Currently Available	8
Honey Bunches of Oats Just Bunches	Post	2008	Currently Available	8
Maple & Brown Sugar Life	Quaker	2008	Currently Available	8
Banana Nut Cheerios	General Mills	2008	Currently Available	8
Frosted Flakes Gold	Kellogg’s	2008	Currently Available	8
Puffa Puffa Rice	Kellogg’s	1967	1975	8
Honey Bunches of Oats with Peaches	Post	2004	2011	7
Marshmallow-Blasted Froot Loops	Kellogg’s	1998	2005	7
Cinnamon Chex	General Mills	2009	Currently Available	7
Honey Kix	General Mills	2009	Currently Available	7
Honey Bunches of Oats with Cinnamon Clusters	Post	2006	2012	6
Apple Jacks Apple Clones	Kellogg’s	2010	Currently Available	6
Chocolate Cheerios	General Mills	2010	Currently Available	6
Sugar Sprinkled Twinkles	General Mills	1960	1965	5
Cinnamon Burst Cheerios	General Mills	2011	Currently Available	5
Cinnamon Crunch Crispix	Kellogg’s	2001	2006	5
Honey Graham Life	Quaker	2004	2009	5
Quake	Quaker	1965	1970	5
Mini Swirlz Cinnamon Bun Cereal	Kellogg’s	2005	2009	4
Krave U.S Version – Kellogg’s	Kellogg’s	2012	Currently Available	4
Disney Hunny B’s Honey-Graham	Kellogg’s/Disney	2002	2006	4
Double Chocolate Krave	Kellogg’s	2012	Currently Available	4
Apple Cinnamon Chex	General Mills	2012	Currently Available	4
Honey Graham Chex	General Mills	1986	1990	4
Frosted Mini-Chex	General Mills	2002	2006	4
Double Dip Crunch	Kellogg’s	1989	1993	4
Chocolate Krave	Kellogg’s	2012	Currently Available	4
Fruity Marshmallow Krispies	Kellogg’s	1987	1990	3
Razzle Dazzle Rice Krispies	Kellogg’s	1997	2000	3
Vanilla Yogurt Crunch Life	Quaker	2005	2008	3
Frosted Flakes Chocolate	Kellogg’s	2010	2013	3
Cookie Crisp Sprinkles	General Mills	2009	2012	3
Banana Frosted Flakes	Kellogg’s	1981	1984	3
SpongeBob SquarePants	Kellogg’s	2004	2007	3
Cocoa Frosted Flakes	Kellogg’s	1997	2000	3
Cookie Crisp Brownie	General Mills	2013	Currently Available	3
Cinna-Crunch Pebbles	Post	1998	2001	3
Ghostbusters Cereal	Ralston	1985	1988	3
Smurf Magic Berries	Post	1987	1990	3
Berry Lucky Charms	General Mills	2006	2009	3
Quake Quangaroos	Quaker	1971	1974	3
Mickey’s Magix	Kellogg’s/Disney	2002	2005	3
Nerds Cereal	Ralston	1983	1986	3
Mud & Bugs	Kellogg’s/Disney	2003	2006	3
Rice Krispies With Real Strawberries	Kellogg’s	2007	2009	2
Rice Krispies With Real Strawberries	Kellogg’s	2007	2009	2
Mini Swirlz Fudge Ripple Cereal	Kellogg’s	2005	2007	2
Double Chocolate Cookie Crisp	General Mills	2006	2008	2
Double Chocolate Cookie Crisp	General Mills	2006	2008	2
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles	Ralston	1989	1991	2
Keebler Cookie Crunch Cereal	Kellogg’s	2008	2010	2
Peanut Butter Cookie Crisp	General Mills	2005	2007	2
Tony’s Cinnamon Krunchers	Kellogg’s	2003	2005	2
Marshmallow Mania Pebbles	Post	2005	2007	2
Chocolate Oat Crunch Life	Quaker	2006	2008	2
Cocoa Krispies Choconilla	Kellogg’s	2007	2009	2
Bamm-Bamm Berry Pebbles	Post	2007	2009	2
Oatmeal Cookie Crisp	General Mills	1978	1980	2
Vanilla Cookie Crisp	General Mills	1978	1980	2
Pink Panther Flakes	Post	1972	1974	2
Cracker Jack Cereal	Ralston	1983	1985	2
Cran-Vanilla Crunch	Kellogg’s	2005	2007	2
Spider-Man Cereal	N/A	2002	2004	2
Hidden Treasures	General Mills	1993	1995	2
Strawberry Chex	General Mills	2008	2010	2
Cupcake Pebbles	Post	2009	2011	2
Berry Krispies	Kellogg’s	2006	2008	2
Jumbo Krispies	Kellogg’s	2009	2011	2
Tiger Power	Kellogg’s	2004	2006	2
Mini Swirlz Peanut Butter Blast Cereal	Kellogg’s	2006	2007	1
Honey Bunches of Oats with Bananas	Post	2004	2005	1
Cap’n Crunch’s Oops! Choco Donuts	Quaker	2003	2004	1
Pirates of the Caribbean Cereal	Kellogg’s	2006	2007	1
The Fairly OddParents Cereal!	Post	2003	2004	1
Pro Grain Cereal Kellogg’s	Kellogg’s	1987	1988	1
Mickey Mouse Magic Crunch	Post	1988	1989	1
Apple Jacks Criss Crossed	Kellogg’s	2008	2009	1
Donkey Kong Jr. Cereal	Ralston	1983	1984	1
Nintendo Cereal System	Ralston/Nintendo –	1988	1989	1
Cat in the Hat Cereal	Kellogg’s	2003	2004	1
Millenios (Cheerios)	General Mills	1999	2000	1
Apple Jacks Gliders	Kellogg’s	2009	2010	1
Donkey Kong Crunch	Ralston	1982	1983	1
IceBerry Pebbles	Post	2006	2007	1
Morning Funnies	N/A	1988	1989	1
Cröonchy Stars	N/A	1988	1989	1
Rocky Road	General Mills	1986	1987	1
Dinersaurs	Ralston	1988	1989	1
Honey Maid	Post	2007	2008	1
Slimer! And The Real Ghosterbusters Cereal	Ralston	1990	1990	0
Birthday Confetti Frosted Flakes	Kellogg’s	1997	1997	0
Sprinkle Spangles	General Mills	1990	1990	0
Sun Crunchers	General Mills	1990	1990	0
Choco Crunch	Quaker	1980	1980	0
Punch Crunch	Quaker	1970	1970	0
Dino Pebbles	Post	1990	1990	0
Oatbake	Kellogg’s	1990	1990	0
OKs	Kellogg’s	1960	1960	0

 

The data! – source/data collection/processing

I collected this set by using the Chrome developer tool to scrape Wikipedia’s list of breakfast cereals page (code below).  I used iPython to analyze/visualize, complete notebook here.

Code to scrape Wiki page: